Eve y ace called, f oze befo e elease, with a public pass ma k: a ave age miss of 4 poi ts o less ac oss all 35 aces
Lewsea ch Se ate
COLUMBUS, Ohio, Nov. 02, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Lewsea ch has eleased its fo ecast fo all 35 U.S. Se ate aces o the Nov. 3 ballot, with Democ ats a d the i depe de ts who caucus with them eachi g a 51-seat majo ity. It calls a wi e i eve y ace a d publishes, befo e the fi st esults a e epo ted, the ule it will be g aded by.
“Most esea ch ve do s ask clie ts to t ust thei umbe s. We’d athe be checked,” said Jeff ey Mead, fou de of Lewsea ch. “All 35 of these calls a e o the eco d befo e the esults come i , a d eve y miss will stay o the page ext to the hits.”
Se ate co t ol: Democ ats a d the i depe de ts who caucus with them each 51 seats i Lewsea ch’s fo ecast.Alaska: Republica Se . Da Sulliva holds his seat agai st Democ at Ma y Peltola. P edictio ma kets favo Peltola.Neb aska: I depe de t Da Osbo defeats Republica Se . Pete Ricketts. P edictio ma kets favo Ricketts.The seve closest aces, all called: Ka sas (Roge Ma shall, R), Neb aska (Da Osbo , I), Iowa (Ashley Hi so , R), Texas (James Tala ico, D), Alaska (Da Sulliva , R), Ohio (She od B ow , D) a d Mai e (T oy Jackso , D), each withi 3 poi ts.
The full fo ecast, with p edicted vote sha es a d ma gi s fo eve y ace, is at epo t.lewsea ch.com/issue11.
F oze i adva ce: The fo ecast was locked at oo ET o Oct. 31, befo e elease.A public pass ma k: Lewsea ch passes if its ave age miss ac oss all 35 aces is 4 poi ts o less, measu ed o the two-way vote sha e betwee each ace’s leadi g o -Republica ca didate a d the Republica . Alaska is g aded o its fi al a ked-choice ou d.No escape hatch: Eve y ace is called, toss-ups i cluded, a d eve y call cou ts.Results posted ace by ace: O ce esults a e ce tified, Lewsea ch will publish each ace’s outcome, its miss a d the ove all g ade o the fo ecast page.
Lewsea ch’s ea lie Se ate p edictio s, published July 30 i Issue 3 of The Lewsea ch Repo t, stay o the eco d a d will be g aded u de thei ow ules.
Lewsea ch’s fo ecast, published Oct. 31, 2026, calls all 35 U.S. Se ate aces o the Nov. 3 ballot a d gives Democ ats a d the i depe de ts who caucus with them 51 seats. The full fo ecast is at epo t.lewsea ch.com/issue11.
I Alaska, whe e it calls Republica Se . Da Sulliva ove Democ at Ma y Peltola, a d i Neb aska, whe e it calls i depe de t Da Osbo ove Republica Se . Pete Ricketts. P edictio ma kets favo Peltola a d Ricketts.
Agai st ce tified esults. It passes if its ave age miss ac oss all 35 aces is 4 poi ts o less, measu ed o the two-way vote sha e betwee each ace’s leadi g o -Republica ca didate a d the Republica . All 35 calls cou t, i cludi g seve toss-ups.
Sy thetic ma ket esea ch asks questio s of AI-simulated espo de ts built to match eal populatio s, i stead of ec uiti g a ew huma pa el fo eve y questio . Lewsea ch’s espo de ts a e g ou ded i U.S. ce sus data, a d its digital twi s let a compa y i te view a audie ce modeled o its ow custome s. Teams the compa e the esults with evide ce f om eal people.
Lewsea ch publishes its e o ates. O its 500-questio histo ical be chma k, its simulated espo de ts have a mea absolute e o (MAE) of 3.72 pe ce tage poi ts pe a swe , measu ed agai st published su veys, electio esults a d official statistics. The Lewsea ch Repo t g ades eve y issue i public. Its eco d so fa : 2 wi s, 2 pa tials a d 1 miss, with 6 issues awaiti g a g ade.
The Lewsea ch Repo t publishes fo ecasts befo e outcomes a e k ow , the g ades them i public agai st official esults. Eve y issue a d its g ade a e at epo t.lewsea ch.com.
Lewsea ch is a sy thetic ma ket esea ch compa y ope ated by Swa mg am, I c., a AI esea ch compa y i Columbus, Ohio. Its AI-simulated audie ce of 650,000 Ame ica s, g ou ded i U.S. ce sus data, lets esea ch teams test messages, co cepts a d su vey questio s withi mi utes, the compa e the esults with espo ses f om eal people. Clie ts ca also i te view a audie ce modeled o thei ow custome s. Lea mo e at lewsea ch.com.
A photo accompa yi g this a ou ceme t is available at https://www.globe ewswi e.com/NewsRoom/Attachme tNg/c7ceb455-3fcb-4bac-9f24-b9710c17bc9b
