Global volatility will remain high as intensifying great-power competition and unresolved regional conflicts collide. RANE’s intelligence drives decision advantage for organizations preparing for emerging risks and opportunities.
NEW YORK, Jan. 05, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Geopolitical and economic uncertainty will remain elevated in 2026 as U.S. tariff policy faces legal challenges, great-power competition intensifies, and regional conflicts edge closer to escalation. Trade, supply chains, and AI investment will contribute to a more volatile operating environment for governments and businesses.
Those are some of the conclusions in RANE’s Annual Geopolitical Forecast, identifying the core trends and constraints that will shape global developments in the coming year.
Among the major trends for 2026, RANE’s annual forecast highlights:
- Tariff uncertainty will stay elevated in 2026 due to legal challenges to the Trump administration and ongoing trade disputes with key partners.
- U.S.–China rivalry and rapid data-center expansion will sustain supply-chain risk, especially for critical minerals and memory chips.
- The U.S. will use military pressure against the remaining Venezuelan regime and criminal networks and seek to engineer a political transition while expanding counternarcotics operations across the region.
- The EU will push to reduce reliance on Russian energy and Chinese minerals while accelerating defense integration and preparing to support Ukraine independently.
- Russia and Ukraine will resist concessions early in 2026, but mounting pressures increase the likelihood of negotiations later in the year.
“Leading organizations recognize that accurate forecasting is critical to ensuring business resilience, preparing for emerging threats, and uncovering opportunities,” says RANE COO Deirdre Dastous. “RANE forecasts are not simply a list of the ‘top ten risks’ – our analysts provide deep dives into key geopolitical developments and outline implications for organizations navigating these challenges in the coming year. RANE’s forecasting methodology is foundational to the daily analysis we deliver to our clients.”
RANE provides trusted, forward-looking intelligence on geopolitical events. With a proven, 25-year methodology, RANE has the tools, capabilities, and analytical rigor to provide the objective analysis organizations need to prepare for emerging threats.
In addition to ongoing quarterly, annual, and decade geopolitical and security forecasts, RANE is also set to publish additional forward-looking analysis in the first quarter of 2026:
- Updated Key Forecast Questions assessing the likelihood and expected business impact of different geopolitical and security risks, with visualizations that monitor risk trajectory and impact over time.
- A Cyber Risk Outlook covering strategic cyber and technology risks that will impact a broad array of people, organizations, and governments over the next three to five years.
Learn more about RANE’s forecasting capabilities and register for our 2026 Forecast Webinar.
About RANE
RANE is a global risk intelligence company that provides risk and security professionals with critical insights and analysis to better anticipate, monitor, and respond to emerging threats. For more information about RANE, visit http://www.ranenetwork.com.
Contact:
Greg Radner
pr@ranenetwork.com
