WASHINGTON, April 20, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Renaissance Philanthropy, in partnership with the Schultz Family Foundation and Metaculus, has launched the Labor Automation Forecasting Hub, a pilot project that aims to give policymakers, educators, and workforce leaders a continuously updated view of how artificial intelligence may reshape the American labor market over the coming decade.
The preliminary projections released today come from a tournament run by Metaculus that asks expert forecasters, data scientists, economists, researchers, and others to predict answers to specific questions about AI’s impacts on U.S. wage growth, industry employment, and college degree programs over the next two, five, and 10 years. The tournament began April 6.
“The most common question I get is how will advances in AI reshape the future of work, and how quickly will those changes arrive,” said Kumar Garg, President of Renaissance Philanthropy. “By leveraging the expertise of the professional forecasters as well as the wisdom of the crowd, we are piloting the Labor Automation Forecasting Hub to give policymakers and educators a promising new capability to target their workforce and education investments more effectively.”
The Labor Automation Forecasting Hub presents predictions made by both professional forecasters and members of the public who have an interest in AI, workforce development, or forecasting in general. These forecasts will change over time and should be considered alongside other data points, reports and predictions. In addition, to improve transparency, the Labor Automation Forecasting Hub requires forecasters to submit the reasoning behind their predictions.
These preliminary forecasts point to:
- Employment Drops: Overall employment is projected to fall 1.9% by 2030 and fall 3.4% by 2035 due to AI-driven displacement. This sharply contrasts with government baselines projecting +3.1% growth over the decade when accounting for aging-adjusted population trends.
- A Leaner Fortune 500: AI is expected to enable companies to generate more revenue with far fewer employees, and over the next decade a growing share of Fortune 500 giants could operate with workforces once associated with small businesses rather than corporate behemoths.
- New Realities for the Next Generation: For decades, the default advice to young people was to get a four-year degree. These forecasts suggest a more complicated picture. Unemployment for new 4-year college graduates is projected to more than double to 12% by 2035. At the same time, degrees awarded by trade schools and community colleges are forecast to increase 26% by 2035.
“The scale of disruption and displacement driven by AI demands a step change in how we understand what’s happening in the labor market, static data and backward-looking analysis simply aren’t enough,” said Marie Groark, managing director at the Schultz Family Foundation. “That’s why we’re partnering with Renaissance Philanthropy and Metaculus on the Labor Automation Forecasting Hub, to better anticipate where change is happening and ensure more people can navigate and access opportunity as the economy evolves.”
The Hub is updated in real time as forecasts come in, so users and decision makers are encouraged to check the site frequently to get the most up-to-date forecasts on how AI may reshape the future of work.
The Labor Automation Tournament is open to the public. Insights generated will be shared with government officials and education and workforce leaders to inform education and training, career guidance, and economic development.
About Renaissance Philanthropy
Renaissance Philanthropy is a nonprofit organization with a mission to fuel a 21st-century renaissance by increasing the ambition of philanthropists, scientists and innovators. The organization designs time-bound, thesis-driven funds led by field experts and inspires talent to take action through playbooks and communities. In the first year, Renaissance Philanthropy catalyzed more than $214M in philanthropic funding for science, technology, and innovation, launching 10+ initiatives across AI, education, climate, health, and scientific infrastructure.
About the Schultz Family Foundation
The Schultz Family Foundation’s mission is to create greater opportunity, accessible to all. Our work is deeply rooted in the lives and values of our co-founders, Sheri and Howard Schultz, who believe talent is everywhere, but opportunity is not. We seek to apply the lessons they have learned over the decades to seed innovations and scale solutions to help young people successfully navigate the transition to adulthood and positively impact the trajectory of their lives. We are investors in unleashing potential and unlocking opportunity, working in partnership with employers, entrepreneurs, non-profits, and governments that share our aspiration of enabling everyone to access the full promise of America. Learn more at: http://www.schultzfamilyfoundation.org.
About Metaculus
Metaculus is a forecasting platform and public benefit corporation whose mission is to improve human decision-making. Drawing on more than 3.7 million predictions across 12 years and over 22,000 questions, Metaculus hosts a global forecasting community making predictions on critical questions in science, technology, geopolitics, and more. Metaculus provides forecasting services to governments, research organizations, and other institutions. Metaculus Pro Forecasters are selected from the top-0.2% of Metaculus forecasters, based on transparent track records and demonstrated over multiple years.
Contact: media@renphil.org
